The $4,560 Forecast: Metals Focus on 2026 Gold Outlook

Metals Focus projects that gold will average US$4,560 per ounce in 2026,

with a plausible path to US$5,000. The forecast, the most widely cited

specialist projection for the coming year, rests on a specific read of

supply, demand and macro risk — and the market's early-2026 price action

has already validated much of it.¹

The Forecast in Context

Metals Focus is a London-based specialist consultancy whose paid Gold

Focus report provides the industry's most detailed annual breakdown of

precious-metals supply and demand. Its open commentary — briefings

published through the Silver Institute, Investing News Network and other

industry outlets — is the form in which the firm's forecasts reach the

wider market.¹

The headline projection for 2026 is a gold price averaging US$4,560 per

ounce with a plausible path to US$5,000. Against the 2025 average of

US$3,431 reported by the World Gold Council, that implies another 33

percent year-on-year average increase.² Gold briefly touched US$5,000 on

26 January 2026, validating the upper end of the range in the first

month of the year.

Drivers Behind the $4,560 Number

Metals Focus identifies four primary drivers for the 2026 outlook.

Unpredictable US trade policy is listed as a specific risk factor:

tariffs, sanctions and currency-related interventions have been more

frequent in the post-2024 political environment, and each creates a

discrete safe-haven bid for gold.¹

Potential stagflation is the second driver. If inflation remains sticky

while growth slows — a combination several macroeconomic forecasters now

treat as plausible for 2026 — the traditional investment case for gold

strengthens. Non-yielding assets become relatively more attractive when

real returns on yielding alternatives deteriorate.

The third driver is continuation of central-bank buying. Official-sector

net purchases in 2025 totalled 863 tonnes — below the +1,000-tonne

threshold of recent years but well above the 2010-2021 average — and

Metals Focus' 2026 model assumes buying remains in a similar range.²

With the World Gold Council's 2025 survey showing 43 percent of

participating central banks planning to add to holdings in the next

twelve months, that assumption is well-supported.

The fourth driver is the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rate cuts

through 2025 took real yields lower, and the path into 2026 implies

additional easing. Lower real yields compress the opportunity cost of

holding gold, which Metals Focus treats as a structural rather than

cyclical driver in its current model.

The interaction between these four drivers matters more than any single

one. In past cycles, gold has rallied on one or two of these factors at

a time. The current environment stacks all four simultaneously — tariff

risk, stagflation risk, central-bank demand and easier monetary policy —

and that combination is what underpins the consultancy's willingness to

put a US$4,560 annual average on the table despite how extraordinary it

would have looked three years ago.

The Supply Side in Metals Focus's Model

On the supply side, Metals Focus reported total 2025 gold supply up 1

percent year on year, with mine production reaching a record 3,672

tonnes — materially higher than the USGS's 3,300-tonne estimate for the

same year, reflecting methodological differences between the two

sources.¹³

Recycling remained stable at roughly 344 tonnes. Even at record prices,

the physical gold in jewellery and other reclaimable forms did not flood

back onto the market at the pace some observers expected. That is one

reason Metals Focus sees room for the price to move higher: the marginal

supply response to price increases has been muted.

Risk Scenarios

The forecast is not point-estimated. Metals Focus' open commentary notes

that the 2026 average could reasonably fall in a range from US$4,200 to

US$5,100, with risks tilted slightly to the upside. A consolidation

scenario — gold holding at US$4,200-4,500 through most of the year — is

the central case. A breakout scenario — gold pushing through US$5,000 on

a sustained basis — requires a macro or geopolitical catalyst.

Downside scenarios get less airtime but should not be ignored. A

surprise shift in US policy that strengthens the dollar materially, or a

faster-than-expected cooling of Asian retail demand, could bring the

price back to US$3,800-4,200. Those outcomes are plausible but not

central to Metals Focus' thinking.

What Producers Should Be Planning For

For mining companies, the Metals Focus forecast has practical

implications. At US$4,560 average, all-in sustaining costs look

comfortable for most of the world's gold mines — even the higher-cost

Australian and African operations that have struggled in recent years

can run profitably. That translates into expanded capital budgets,

longer mine lives, and more aggressive exploration programmes.

Brazilian producers are particularly well-positioned. With operations

such as Paracatu already delivering one of the most reliable production

profiles in the Americas, and with Aura Minerals' expanding footprint

providing a mid-tier growth story, the 2026 forecast is supportive of

Brazil's sector trajectory. IBRAM's 2025 data showed mining revenue from

gold rising 64.8 percent in the country, and another year at US$4,560

would extend the pattern.⁴

For the mid-tier M&A market, the Metals Focus number is almost an

invitation. Sellers should feel empowered to ask for more; buyers should

feel comfortable paying more because the forward curve supports the

economics. The net result is likely to be continued consolidation

activity in Brazilian gold and across the Americas, with deals

structured around the new price reality rather than the historical

averages that framed transactions as recently as 2023.

Outlook

The $4,560 number is a benchmark, not a prophecy. Like any forecast, it

rests on assumptions that may or may not hold through the year. But the

quality of