Jewellery's Strange Year in a Record Price Environment

Jewellery demand for gold fell 18 percent in volume during 2025 to

1,542.3 tonnes — a steep drop in the largest single use of the metal.

Yet the dollar value of that demand rose 18 percent, to US$172 billion,

as the price carried everything upward. The paradox defines an unusual

year for the industry.¹

The Year Jewellery Stumbled

The headline numbers from the World Gold Council's 2025 Demand Trends

report make the pattern clear. Global jewellery demand came in at

1,542.3 tonnes, down 18 percent from 2024, while the dollar value of the

category rose 18 percent to US$172 billion — a divergence driven

entirely by the roughly 45 percent jump in the average gold price to

US$3,431 per troy ounce.¹ USGS data covering the first nine months of

2025 showed global gold consumption in jewellery down 20 percent

year-on-year, consistent with the WGC figures.²

The phrase the WGC used to describe the segment was deliberately

cautious: "Jewellery to remain weak in a persistent high price

environment."¹ For a category that still represents about 40 percent of

global gold end-use according to USGS' 2025 tallies, a 20-percent volume

contraction is significant.² It also matters for the balance of the

market: weaker jewellery buying offset part of the investment boom, and

its 2026 trajectory will shape how tight supply feels.

Value Up, Volume Down — the Classic Paradox

Jewellery demand has always been price-sensitive in the way a

commodity-proxy market is not. Most jewellery buyers work to a budget.

If a piece of gold jewellery that would have weighed 10 grams at

US$2,000 per ounce gold costs the same money but weighs 6 grams at

US$3,400, the buyer often opts for the smaller item. Aggregate tonnage

falls even as cash outlays hold steady or rise.

The 2025 data tells exactly that story. Retailers reported stable

footfall in most markets but lighter average piece weights, more

frequent use of lower-karat alloys (14k and 18k displacing 22k in some

markets), and growing acceptance of smaller designs. The shift was

particularly visible in India, where 22k jewellery has historically

dominated but where 18k gained share during the price acceleration of

the second half of the year.

This is how high gold prices eventually feed back into the mineral

balance. The year 2025 ended with jewellery absorbing dramatically less

ounce-volume than it would have at a lower price — freeing metal for the

investment and official-sector channels that drove the bull market in

the first place.

India and China — Regional Divergence

India and China together account for more than half of global gold

jewellery demand in a normal year, and their combined behaviour shapes

the headline number. Both markets pulled back in volume terms during

2025. Chinese buyers were more sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds,

with softer consumer-spending data and a slower wedding season

contributing to the drop. Indian buyers, culturally bound to festival

and wedding cycles, cushioned part of the decline but shifted decisively

toward lighter designs.

The combined 2025 figure for bar-and-coin investment in India and China

was striking for a different reason: more than half of the WGC's US$154

billion global bar-and-coin total came from the two countries.¹ That is

the same population of buyers who softened jewellery spending. In other

words, the regional capital did not leave gold — it simply shifted from

ornamental to investment form.

This substitution effect complicates the narrative about jewellery

weakness. If gold-buying households in India and China collectively

allocated more physical gold to bar-and-coin channels than they did to

ornamental jewellery, the apparent demand softness in one line is really

a reclassification within the same broader flow. The total physical

metal absorbed by these markets remained at or near historic highs, even

as the jewellery share of that total fell.

What Producers and Retailers Did

Jewellery retailers and bullion-linked brands responded with strategy

changes that will persist into 2026. Several major chains in India

accelerated digital sales, recognising that smaller pieces move well

through e-commerce. Chinese retailers trimmed physical footprint in

lower-tier cities and invested in private-label gold bars to capture the

investment demand that had displaced traditional jewellery spend.

Producers reacted too. With jewellery fabricators buying less physical

inventory, some LBMA-accredited refineries repositioned capacity toward

bar-and-coin production and central-bank-eligible 400-ounce good

delivery bars. The industrial plumbing adjusts faster than the cultural

narrative, and by the end of 2025 the physical-gold ecosystem looked

more investment-tilted than any year since 2013.

The reconfiguration of refining capacity matters for the supply side.

Refineries that built efficient jewellery-scrap recovery lines in the

2010s spent part of 2025 adapting them for investment-grade bar output,

a shift that took engineering work but paid off almost immediately in

product mix and margin. The investment-demand cycle is rewarding

refineries that are flexible across product formats.

The Structural Question — Is This a Break?

The deeper question is whether 2025 represented a one-year pullback at

an unusual price, or a structural shift away from gold jewellery.

Analysts are divided.

The case for a one-year pullback is straightforward. The 44 percent

average price jump in 2025 was an outlier event, and historically such

moves are followed by stabilisation. If prices consolidate in the

US$4,000-4,500 range through 2026, jewellery demand may recover

meaningfully as buyers adjust to the new normal.

The case for structural change is subtler. Younger consumers in key

markets are shifting preferences toward platinum, silver and lab-grown

diamonds for aesthetic jewellery, reserving gold for investment or

cultural occasions. If that split persists, global gold jewellery de

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