India and China Drove Bar and Coin Demand Above US$154bn

Bar and coin investment in gold reached a record US$154 billion in 2025,

with India and China together accounting for more than half of the

total. The quiet accumulation inside the world's two most important

physical-gold markets underpinned the bull run as visibly as any central

bank did.¹

The Record That Defined 2025

The World Gold Council's 2025 Demand Trends report captured a

bar-and-coin category in boom mode. Full-year volume reached 1,374.1

tonnes, up 16 percent year-on-year, and the dollar value — US$154

billion — marked the highest annual total since 2013.¹ The fourth

quarter alone absorbed 420.5 tonnes of bar-and-coin buying, the

strongest Q4 for the category in a dozen years.

The headline figure dwarfs what central banks bought in the same period

(863 tonnes through official channels, per the WGC).¹ Private

physical-gold buyers, in other words, took more metal off the market

than the monetary authorities did — a ratio that rarely holds during a

central-bank accumulation cycle and that tells you something important

about household behaviour during 2025.

India — Festival-Cycle Meets Bull Run

India's structural demand for gold is tied to wedding and festival

cycles, and neither calendar softened in 2025 despite the price move.

What changed was the form of the purchase. Indian buyers shifted

aggressively toward bars and coins — and increasingly toward digital

gold products — as the price made larger ornamental jewellery pieces

less affordable.

The 22-karat jewellery market, long the dominant channel, gave ground to

a combination of 18-karat ornamental pieces and pure bullion. Gold-coin

sales through Indian post offices, cooperative banks and online bullion

platforms rose sharply in the second half of 2025. By year-end, Indian

bar-and-coin volume alone was estimated to represent a material share of

the global total, with festival seasons delivering outsized monthly

peaks.

Digital gold products deserve separate attention. India's fintech sector

has made fractional gold ownership — often in increments as small as

0.01 gram — accessible through smartphone apps. These small-ticket

purchases compound into meaningful aggregate flows and have broadened

the buyer base to demographic segments that previously had neither

access to nor interest in physical gold. The infrastructure that enabled

the 2025 boom will outlast the specific price environment.

China — From Jewellery to Bars

China's 2025 story was a rotation. As consumer confidence softened on

broader macroeconomic concerns, Chinese households redirected gold

purchasing from jewellery to investment-grade bars. The country's

specialist bullion retailers, including banks authorised by the People's

Bank of China, reported record sales through the second half of the

year.

The shift was clearest in high-tier city distribution. Shanghai and

Beijing jewellery retailers that had expanded aggressively in the 2010s

reported softer traffic, while bullion-dedicated channels in the same

cities saw demand that outstripped inventory in several months. The

underlying logic was consistent with the government's own stance: gold

as a store of value is politically acceptable, and investment demand

therefore has room to run.

Chinese bank distribution networks played a specific role. Major

state-owned banks offered gold-savings products tied to spot prices,

standardised bullion bars for direct purchase, and storage services that

reduced the friction of physical ownership for urban households. These

channels scaled quickly in 2025 and captured a disproportionate share of

incremental retail flow.

Non-Asian Retail Investment

Outside Asia, the bar-and-coin story was more uneven but still

constructive. North American demand stayed at elevated levels, supported

by gold coin sales through the US Mint and various private mints.

European bar demand, historically steady rather than spectacular, picked

up in the second half of the year as eurozone inflation expectations and

currency concerns drove retail allocation decisions.

Turkey, Russia and parts of the Middle East saw particularly strong

growth — regions where retail investors have long used physical gold as

a hedge against currency volatility and where 2025's geopolitical risk

environment reinforced that habit. Combined, these markets did not match

India-China scale but they added meaningfully to the global total.

Latin American demand is a growing side story. Brazilian retail gold

purchases, historically small, picked up noticeably as the domestic

currency weakened and local financial markets absorbed successive

policy-rate shifts. The channel is nowhere near the scale of Asian

retail markets, but it is no longer negligible.

Implications for the Refinery Chain

The 2025 bar-and-coin boom reshaped physical-gold logistics.

LBMA-accredited refineries that had specialised in good delivery bars

for institutional clients reallocated capacity toward investment-grade

small bars — typically 10-gram, 100-gram and one-kilogramme products —

to meet retail demand.

That reallocation had consequences downstream. Jewellery fabricators in

India and China found access to refined gold slightly tighter in peak

months, particularly during the second half of the year when

bar-and-coin buyers were competing for the same throughput. Some

fabricators brought forward their own inventory positioning to avoid

supply-chain delays around the festival season.

The premium on small-format retail bars widened as well. Standard

400-ounce good-delivery bars traded at close to spot, as expected, but

100-gram and one-kilogramme products carried small premiums in both

Mumbai and Shanghai through the strongest demand months. Those premiums

are a direct read on how much retail demand there was — and they tracked

the bar-and-coin flow almost perfectly.

Outlook

The 2026 question for bar-and-coin demand is whether it can sustain the

2025 pace. India's festival and wedding cycle

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