Brazil's Garimpo Question in a US$4,000 World

The gap between Brazil's formal gold-production statistics and the

country's actual output widens every time the price moves higher. At

US$4,000 per ounce and above, the economics of garimpo — artisanal and

small-scale mining — shift in ways that neither the sector nor the state

has yet fully confronted.¹²

The Size of the Shadow Sector

Official industry data put Brazilian gold production at roughly 100

tonnes per year, a figure that combines large-scale industrial

operations and licensed artisanal mining.¹ The U.S. Geological Survey

reports 80 tonnes for 2025 on its more conservative methodology, which

focuses on mine-reported output through formal channels.² Neither number

captures the full volume of gold that physically leaves Brazilian soil

each year.

The difference is informal or illegal garimpo — small-scale mining that

operates outside the regulatory framework, often in Indigenous

territories, environmental reserves or on river systems in the Amazon

basin. Estimates of its annual volume vary widely, from an additional 15

tonnes on the conservative end to 40 or more tonnes in some academic and

investigative journalism estimates. The true figure almost certainly

moves with the gold price, and 2025's price environment is likely to

have pulled in additional informal activity.

Why High Prices Pull In More Garimpo

The economics of garimpo are simple and brutal. A small group of workers

with manual equipment, mercury amalgamation and a working relationship

with local intermediaries can operate profitably at gold grades and

scales that a formal mining company cannot. At US$2,000 per ounce,

marginal sites barely covered costs. At US$4,000 per ounce, the same

sites deliver two to three times the net margin and attract more

participants.

The labour supply is equally responsive. Regions in the Brazilian Amazon

with limited formal employment alternatives see garimpo expand during

price cycles, with informal workers migrating across state borders to

follow the most productive sites. The social network is organised:

equipment rental, fuel supply, amalgam buyers, transport logistics and

downstream laundering chains all scale with the price.

The mercury problem scales with the activity. Every kilogramme of gold

produced by mercury amalgamation releases between 1 and 5 kilogrammes of

mercury into river systems. The cumulative environmental burden is

measurable in regional fish-contamination studies, in community health

data and in isotopic tracers detectable thousands of kilometres

downstream. The 2025 price environment makes that burden larger, not

smaller.

International financial flows respond to the same incentives. Informal

gold from the Brazilian Amazon is easier to monetise when the per-ounce

price is higher, because the fixed transaction costs of laundering —

intermediary fees, transport, border-crossing — are a smaller share of

the total. That fact alone explains why illegal garimpo expands more

than proportionally when gold prices rise.

The Legal Framework

Brazilian mining law distinguishes clearly between industrial mining

(governed by federal concession) and garimpagem (small-scale mining

under a simplified licence called Permissão de Lavra Garimpeira). The

licensed garimpo that the 100-tonne aggregate includes is part of the

formal system and contributes tax and royalty revenue.

Illegal garimpo, by definition, does not. The gold it produces moves

through informal buyer networks, often crosses state lines, and is

eventually laundered into the formal market by being reclassified as

licensed artisanal production or by export through loosely supervised

channels. Federal enforcement actions — including high-profile

operations coordinated with the Federal Police and environmental

agencies — have become more frequent since 2023, but the gap between

formal and informal gold remains substantial.

Environmental Cost

The environmental liability of illegal garimpo goes beyond mercury.

River siltation alters downstream fishery dynamics, deforestation for

access roads and pits accelerates the loss of Amazon canopy, and the

cumulative social fabric of affected Indigenous territories has suffered

documented harm. In the Yanomami territory in Roraima, the federal

government ran a sustained expulsion campaign in 2023-2024 to remove

illegal miners operating inside the reserve, and comparable operations

in the Tapajós, Alta Floresta and Karipuna regions have followed.

The environmental cost has financial consequences for the formal sector.

International buyers and refineries increasingly demand traceable

provenance for gold they accept, and a country perceived as permitting

large-scale informal production faces reputational headwinds on the

global market. Brazilian formal producers, who operate to high ESG

standards, bear the cost of the informal sector's behaviour even though

they play no role in it.

Paths Forward

There is no single solution, but a coherent package combining

enforcement, traceability and economic alternatives is beginning to take

shape. Federal and state authorities have invested in satellite

monitoring systems that can identify active garimpo sites in

near-real-time. Gold traceability frameworks — of the kind the LBMA and

responsible-sourcing initiatives have been developing — are being

piloted with Brazilian refineries. And formal exploration initiatives,

including the SGB's favourability maps for the Carajás-Tapajós-Alta

Floresta axis, aim to channel some of the exploration energy of the

region into licensed, technology-driven activity.³

Economic alternatives are the slowest to build. Many garimpo workers

live in regions with few alternatives to informal mining, and any

enforcement strategy that does not include livelihood programmes tends

to push activity elsewhere rather than eliminate it. Sustainable

forestry, açaí-based agriculture, formal mining-service employment and

tourism are all being tested at scale, but none is y

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